Global Sensitivity Analysis of Parameter Uncertainty in Landscape Evolution Models

The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently, with model functions relating to internal geomorphic changes responding in a different way to those relating to the sediment yields from the catchment outlet. The model functions proved useful for providing a way of evaluating the sensitivity of LEMs in the absence of data and methods for an objective function approach.</p

Simulating tidal and storm surge hydraulics with a simple 2D inertia based model, in the Humber Estuary, U.K

The hydraulic modelling of tidal estuarine environments has been largely limited to complex 3D models that are computationally expensive. This makes them unsuitable for applications which make use of live data to make real/near time forecasts, such as the modelling of storm surge propagation and associated flood inundation risks. To address this requirement for a computationally efficient method a reduced complexity, depth-integrated 2D storage cell model (Lisflood-FP) has been applied to the Humber Estuary, UK. The capability of Lisflood-FP to reproduce the tidal heights of the Humber Estuary has been shown by comparing modelled and observed tidal stage heights over a period of a week. The feasibility of using the Lisflood-FP model to forecast flood inundation risk from a storm surge is demonstrated by reproducing the major storm surge that struck the UK East Coast and Humber Estuary on 5 December 2013. Results show that even for this 2013 extreme event the model is capable of reproducing the hydraulics and tidal levels of the estuary. Using present day flood defences and observed flooding extents, the modelled flood inundation areas produced by the model were compared, showing agreement in most areas and illustrating the model's potential as a now-casting early warning system when driven by publically available data, and in near real-time. The Lisflood-FP model used was incorporated into the CAESAR-Lisflood GUI, with the calibration and verification of the estuarine hydraulics reported herein being a key step in creating an estuary evolution model, capable of operating in the decadal to century timescales that are presently underrepresented in estuarine predictive capability, and ultimately developing a model to predict the evolution of flood risk over the longer term

KOtBu : a privileged reagent for electron transfer reactions?

Many recent studies have used KOtBu in organic reactions that involve single electron transfer; in the literature, the electron transfer is proposed to occur either directly from the metal alkoxide or indirectly, following reaction of the alkoxide with a solvent or additive. These reaction classes include coupling reactions of halobenzenes and arenes, reductive cleavages of dithianes and SRN1 reactions. Direct electron transfer would imply that alkali metal alkoxides are willing partners in these electron transfer reactions, but the literature reports provide little or no experimental evidence for this. This paper examines each of these classes of reaction in turn, and contests the roles proposed for KOtBu; instead, it provides new mechanistic information that in each case supports the in situ formation of organic electron donors. We go on to show that direct electron transfer from KOtBu can however occur in appropriate cases, where the electron acceptor has a reduction potential near the oxidation potential of KOtBu, and the example that we use is CBr4. In this case, computational results support electrochemical data in backing a direct electron transfer reaction

The Rationale and Design of the Reducing Pathology in Alzheimer's Disease through Angiotensin TaRgeting (RADAR) Trial

BACKGROUND: Anti-hypertensives that modify the renin angiotensin system may reduce Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology and reduce the rate of disease progression. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a phase II, two arm, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial of losartan to test the efficacy of Reducing pathology in Alzheimer's Disease through Angiotensin TaRgeting (RADAR). METHODS: Men and women aged at least 55 years with mild-to-moderate AD will be randomly allocated 100 mg encapsulated generic losartan or placebo once daily for 12 months after successful completion of a 2-week open-label phase and 2-week placebo washout to establish drug tolerability. 228 participants will provide at least 182 subjects with final assessments to provide 84% power to detect a 25% difference in atrophy rate (therapeutic benefit) change over 12 months at an alpha level of 0.05. We will use intention-to-treat analysis, estimating between-group differences in outcomes derived from appropriate (linear or logistic) multivariable regression models adjusting for minimization variables. RESULTS: The primary outcome will be rate of whole brain atrophy as a surrogate measure of disease progression. Secondary outcomes will include changes to 1) white matter hyperintensity volume and cerebral blood flow; 2) performance on a standard series of assessments of memory, cognitive function, activities of daily living, and quality of life. Major assessments (for all outcomes) and relevant safety monitoring of blood pressure and bloods will be at baseline and 12 months. Additional cognitive assessment will also be conducted at 6 months along with safety blood pressure and blood monitoring. Monitoring of blood pressure, bloods, and self-reported side effects will occur during the open-label phase and during the majority of the post-randomization dispensing visits. CONCLUSION: This study will identify whether losartan is efficacious in the treatment of AD and whether definitive Phase III trials are warranted

Electron transfer reactions : KOtBu (but not NaOtBu) photoreduces benzophenone under activation by visible light

Long-standing controversial reports of electron transfer from KOtBu to benzophenone have been investigated and resolved. The mismatch in the oxidation potential of KOtBu (+0.10 V vs SCE in DMF) and the first reduction potential of benzophenone (of many values cited in the literature, the least negative value is −1.31 V vs SCE in DMF), preclude direct electron transfer. Experimental and computational results now establish that a complex is formed between the two reagents, with the potassium ion providing the linkage, which markedly shifts the absorption spectrum to provide a tail in the visible light region. Photoactivation at room temperature by irradiation at defined wavelength (365 or 400 nm), or even by winter daylight, leads to the development of the blue color of the potassium salt of benzophenone ketyl, whereas no reaction is observed when the reaction mixture is maintained in darkness. So, no electron transfer occurs in the ground state. However, when photoexcited, electron transfer occurs within a complex formed from benzophenone and KOtBu. TDDFT studies match experimental findings and also define the electronic transition within the complex as n → π*, originating on the butoxide oxygen. Computation and experiment also align in showing that this reaction is selective for KOtBu; no such effect occurs with NaOtBu, providing the first case where such alkali metal ion selectivity is rationalized in detail. Chemical evidence is provided for the photoactivated electron transfer from KOtBu to benzophenone: tert-butoxyl radicals are formed and undergo fragmentation to form (acetone and) methyl radicals, some of which are trapped by benzophenone. Likewise, when KOC(Et)3 is used in place of KOtBu, then ethylation of benzophenone is seen. Further evidence of electron transfer was seen when the reaction was conducted in benzene, in the presence of p-iodotoluene; this triggered BHAS coupling to form 4-methylbiphenyl in 74% yield

Optimised synthesis and further structural diversity of ytterbium benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate MOFs

The optimisation of the crystallisation of the hydrothermally-stable metal–organic framework Yb6-MOF (Yb6(BDC)7(OH)4(H2O)4) to provide a reproducible one-step synthesis is achieved by use of the sodium salt of benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate (Na2BDC) as ligand precursor and control of pH with aqueous NaOH at 190 °C over 3 days. Phase purity is confirmed using powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). During exploration of synthesis conditions from the same set of chemical reagents, three further ytterbium benzene-1,4-dicarboxylates have been isolated and structurally characterised using single-crystal X-ray diffraction, with phase purity assessed by PXRD and TGA. UOW-3 (Yb2(H2O)6(BDC)3) crystallises by lowering pH, and has a relatively dense three-dimensionally connected structure with no Yb–O–Yb linkages but dimers of Yb bridged by BDC linkers lying in the ab plane with a pseudo, pillared-layered structure, where BDC connects along c. UOW-4 (Yb4(BDC)6(H2O)6) forms under the same chemical conditions but upon lowering the temperature to 100 °C, and this material again contains no Yb–O–Yb linkages, but chains of BDC-bridged Yb centres cross-linked to give a dense three-dimensional structure. Upon increasing pH of the synthesis mixture, the material UOW-5 forms, Yb5O(OH)8(BDC)2(HBDC), consisting of dense inorganic layers of ytterbium oxyhydroxide, cross linked by BDC and HBDC pillars. The formulation is supported by infrared spectroscopy, which provides evidence for the HBDC monoanion, and also the presence of a short O–O distance indicative of hydrogen bonding between a carboxylate OH and an oxide anion of the inorganic layer. UOW-3 and UOW-4 both convert to Yb6-MOF upon heating in water above their synthesis temperature, whereas UOW-5 is hydrothermally stable at 240 °C. The structures of the new materials are discussed in terms of ligand binding modes, and connectivity of metal centres, with comparison to other reported Yb-BDC phases in order to relate structural chemistry to their synthesis conditions and the hydrothermal stability of the materials

Losartan to slow the progression of mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease through angiotensin targeting: the RADAR RCT

BACKGROUND: Medications that modify the renin–angiotensin system may reduce Alzheimer’s disease pathology and reduce the rate of disease progression. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated whether taking the antihypertensive drug losartan, in addition to normal care, would slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease when compared with a placebo. DESIGN: A double-blind multicentre randomised controlled trial, after a 4-week open-label phase, with follow-up at 14 days and at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. The primary outcome was based on measured imaging differences in brain volume between baseline and 12 months. SETTING: Twenty-three NHS hospital trusts across England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: Patients diagnosed with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease were eligible to participate if they met the following criteria: (1) aged ≥ 55 years; (2) a Mini Mental State Examination score of 15–28; (3) a modified Hachinski Ischaemic Score of ≤ 5; (4) a previous computerised tomography, single-photon emission computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging scan consistent with a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease; (5) a study companion who was willing to participate in the study; and (6) capacity to consent for themselves. Patients were ineligible if they were (1) taking or intolerant to renin–angiotensin system-related medications, (2) unlikely to undergo magnetic resonance imaging or (3) unlikely to complete the trial protocol. People who had blood pressure outside the normal ranges, defined cardiovascular issues, impaired liver or renal function, or a primary neurodegenerative disease that was not Alzheimer’s disease were also excluded, as were women who had not reached menopause and were unwilling to take relevant protocol-specific safety precautions. INTERVENTION: The intervention was either 100 mg of overencapsulated losartan (Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd, Petah Tikva, Israel) daily or a matched placebo for 12 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Difference in brain atrophy, represented by measurement of whole-brain volume before and following 12 months of treatment post randomisation, was measured using volumetric MRI and determined by boundary shift interval analysis. Secondary outcomes included changes in rates of Alzheimer’s disease progression (as assessed using the ADAS-Cog, Mini Mental State Examination and Neuropsychiatric Inventory), the volume of white matter hyperintensities, cerebral blood flow (assessed by magnetic resonance imaging), blood pressure, magnetic resonance imaging measures of atrophy and association with measures of cognitive decline, and drug compliance and tolerability. RESULTS: A total of 261 participants entered the open-label phase, of whom 211 were randomised to the intervention (n = 105) or placebo (n = 106) arms. Of the 197 people (93%) who completed the study, 81% (n = 171) had a valid primary outcome. The difference in brain volume between arms was consistent with chance (–2.79 ml, 95% confidence interval –6.46 to 0.89 ml; p = 0.19), and there was no evidence of benefit for any of the secondary outcome measures. LIMITATIONS: Our study had 82% power to detect treatment-based changes and, as a result, may have been underpowered or, more likely, the intervention, which may not have crossed the blood–brain barrier as much as expected, may have been given too late or for an insufficient amount of time in the disease process to influence the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Losartan administered over 12 months did not alter brain atrophy in Alzheimer’s disease. FUTURE WORK: Other related ‘sartans’ could be tested in patient groups with mild cognitive impairment and for longer to fully test this hypothesis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN93682878 and EudraCT 2012-003641-15. FUNDING: This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) partnership. This will be published in full in Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation; Vol. 8, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Safety and efficacy of losartan for the reduction of brain atrophy in clinically diagnosed Alzheimer's disease (the RADAR trial): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND: Drugs modifying angiotensin II signalling could reduce Alzheimer's disease pathology, thus decreasing the rate of disease progression. We investigated whether the angiotensin II receptor antagonist losartan, compared with placebo, could reduce brain volume loss, as a measure of disease progression, in clinically diagnosed mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease. METHODS: In this double-blind, multicentre, randomised controlled trial, eligible patients aged 55 years or older, previously untreated with angiotensin II drugs and diagnosed (National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and the Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria) with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease, and who had capacity to consent, were recruited from 23 UK National Health Service hospital trusts. After undergoing a 4-week, open-label phase of active treatment then washout, participants were randomly assigned (1:1) oral over-encapsulated preparations of either 100 mg losartan (after an initial two-dose titration stage) or matched placebo daily for 12 months. Randomisation, minimised by age and baseline medial temporal lobe atrophy score, was undertaken online or via pin-access service by telephone. Participants, their study companions, and study personnel were masked to group assignment. The primary outcome, analysed by the intention-to-treat principle (ie, participants analysed in the group to which they were randomised, without imputation for missing data), was change in whole brain volume between baseline and 12 months, measured using volumetric MRI and determined by boundary shift interval (BSI) analysis. The trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register (ISRCTN93682878) and the European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT 2012-003641-15), and is completed. FINDINGS: Between July 22, 2014, and May 17, 2018, 261 participants entered the open-label phase. 211 were randomly assigned losartan (n=105) or placebo (n=106). Of 197 (93%) participants who completed the study, 171 (81%) had complete primary outcome data. The mean brain volume (BSI) reduction was 19·1 mL (SD 10·3) in the losartan group and 20·0 mL (10·8) in the placebo group. The difference in total volume reduction between groups was -2·29 mL (95% CI -6·46 to 0·89; p=0·14). The number of adverse events was low (22 in the losartan group and 20 in the placebo group) with no differences between treatment groups. There was one treatment-related death per treatment group. INTERPRETATION: 12 months of treatment with losartan was well tolerated but was not effective in reducing the rate of brain atrophy in individuals with clinically diagnosed mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease. Further research is needed to assess the potential therapeutic benefit from earlier treatment in patients with milder cognitive impairment or from longer treatment periods. FUNDING: Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation Programme (UK Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research)

Mild cognitive impairment: the Manchester consensus

Given considerable variation in diagnostic and therapeutic practice, there is a need for national guidance on the use of neuroimaging, fluid biomarkers, cognitive testing, follow-up and diagnostic terminology in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). MCI is a heterogenous clinical syndrome reflecting a change in cognitive function and deficits on neuropsychological testing but relatively intact activities of daily living. MCI is a risk state for further cognitive and functional decline with 5–15% of people developing dementia per year. However, ~50% remain stable at 5 years and in a minority, symptoms resolve over time. There is considerable debate about whether MCI is a useful clinical diagnosis, or whether the use of the term prevents proper inquiry (by history, examination and investigations) into underlying causes of cognitive symptoms, which can include prodromal neurodegenerative disease, other physical or psychiatric illness, or combinations thereof. Cognitive testing, neuroimaging and fluid biomarkers can improve the sensitivity and specificity of aetiological diagnosis, with growing evidence that these may also help guide prognosis. Diagnostic criteria allow for a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease to be made where MCI is accompanied by appropriate biomarker changes, but in practice, such biomarkers are not available in routine clinical practice in the UK. This would change if disease-modifying therapies became available and required a definitive diagnosis but would present major challenges to the National Health Service and similar health systems. Significantly increased investment would be required in training, infrastructure and provision of fluid biomarkers and neuroimaging. Statistical techniques combining markers may provide greater sensitivity and specificity than any single disease marker but their practical usefulness will depend on large-scale studies to ensure ecological validity and that multiple measures, e.g. both cognitive tests and biomarkers, are widely available for clinical use. To perform such large studies, we must increase research participation amongst those with MCI